Week 1 pick
Grid 2026-09-08 23:16 UTC · spread→win β 0.1422 · 4175 games
JAX
vsCLE
Jacksonville Jaguars-8.5
P(Win)
79%
P(Win Out)
1.25%
1 in
80
E(Wins)
14.13
Picked by
22%
Shorten this if your pool will end early.
Suggests a weight of 0.00.
survive (0.00)leverage
Pickable days
Turn off days your pool locks before.4 remaining games have no posted line (DET vs NE, LAR vs SEA, ARI vs NYJ, ATL vs CLE) and cannot be picked by the model.
This week’s options
Ranked by P(Win Out)
| # | Team | Opponent | P(Win) | P(Win Out) | E(Wins) | P% | EV | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | CLE | 79% | 1.25% | 14.13 | 22% | 1.09 | — |
| 2 | LAC | ARI | 80% | 1.18% | 14.09 | 28% | 1.08 | -5.5% |
| 3 | DET | NO | 73% | 1.00% | 13.97 | 14% | 1.03 | -20% |
| 4 | PIT | ATL | 62% | 0.99% | 13.97 | 4.1% | 0.93 | -21% |
| 5 | LV | MIA | 62% | 0.99% | 13.97 | 5.5% | 0.92 | -21% |
| 6 | CIN | TB | 64% | 0.98% | 13.96 | 1.3% | 0.98 | -21% |
| 7 | PHI | WSH | 66% | 0.97% | 13.96 | 3.4% | 0.99 | -22% |
| 8 | CHI | @CAR | 58% | 0.89% | 13.90 | 3.3% | 0.88 | -29% |
| 9 | MIN | GB | 53% | 0.83% | 13.87 | 0.30% | 0.81 | -33% |
| 10 | TEN | NYJ | 53% | 0.83% | 13.87 | 3.3% | 0.79 | -33% |
| 11 | BAL | @IND | 61% | 0.82% | 13.84 | 1.7% | 0.93 | -34% |
| 12 | KC | DEN | 57% | 0.82% | 13.84 | 0.50% | 0.88 | -35% |
Full season outlook
The optimal path if you make this week’s pick
1JAXvsCLE79%
2LACvsLV76%
3SFvsARI84%
4CHIvsNYJ78%
5NEvsLV77%
6LARvsARI88%
7DENatARI74%
8DALvsARI82%
9SEAvsARI87%
10INDvsMIA73%
11KCvsARI84%
12CINvsNO72%
13PHIatARI77%
14DETvsTEN74%
15GBvsMIA82%
16BALvsCLE81%
17BUFatMIA74%
18HOUvsTEN73%
Risky picks
Least value left for the rest of the season
| # | Team | Opponent | P(Win) | P(N Week) | P(T Week) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAXOptimal | CLE | 79% | 1.59% | 1.2% |
| 2 | PIT | ATL | 62% | 1.59% | 0.99% |
| 3 | LV | MIA | 62% | 1.59% | 0.99% |
| 4 | MIN | GB | 53% | 1.59% | 0.83% |
| 5 | TEN | NYJ | 53% | 1.59% | 0.83% |
| 6 | NYJ | @TEN | 47% | 1.59% | 0.75% |
The favored team with the least value left for the rest of the season — spending it now costs the future almost nothing. Good for a second entry. A team marked Optimal is also this week’s recommended pick, which is a strong signal to use them now.
Season grid
Click a team to mark it used.| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARI 80% | LV 76% | @BUF 40% | @SEA 39% | DEN 58% | @KC 41% | bye | @LAR 35% | HOU 59% | @BAL 39% | NYJ 81% | NE 59% | @TB 55% | @LV 67% | SF 59% | @MIA 73% | KC 55% | @DEN 45% | |
CLE 79% | @DEN 41% | NE 55% | @CIN 42% | @PHI 45% | @HOU 45% | bye | IND 65% | @BAL 35% | @TEN 59% | @NYG 55% | TEN 69% | @CHI 39% | PIT 61% | @HOU 39% | @DAL 39% | WSH 62% | @IND 45% | |
NO 73% | @BUF 40% | NYJ 80% | @CAR 60% | @ARI 77% | bye | GB 59% | MIN 67% | @MIA 72% | @NE — | TB 65% | CHI 59% | @ATL 62% | TEN 74% | @MIN 57% | NYG 69% | @CHI 45% | @GB 41% | |
WSH 66% | @TEN 66% | @CHI 46% | LAR 42% | @JAX 55% | CAR 72% | DAL 61% | @WSH 59% | NYG 69% | bye | PIT 69% | @DAL 45% | @ARI 77% | IND 69% | SEA 55% | HOU 59% | @SF 45% | @NYG 61% | |
TB 64% | @HOU 41% | @PIT 55% | JAX 58% | @MIA 70% | bye | @BAL 38% | TEN 72% | @ATL 65% | PIT 62% | @WSH 55% | NO 72% | @CLE 65% | KC 55% | @CAR 59% | @IND 55% | BAL 59% | CLE 74% | |
@SF 64% | NYG 78% | @DEN 60% | @PHI 58% | BUF 63% | ARI 88% | @LV 76% | LAC 65% | @WSH 65% | @ARI 82% | bye | GB 69% | KC 65% | @SF 59% | DAL 73% | @SEA — | @TB 64% | SEA 61% | |
MIA 62% | @LAC 24% | @NO 37% | KC 31% | @NE 23% | BUF 27% | LAR 24% | @NYJ 45% | @SF 22% | SEA 27% | @DEN 24% | @CLE 43% | bye | LAC 33% | DEN 35% | TEN 55% | @ARI 55% | @KC 23% | |
ATL 62% | @NE 34% | CIN 45% | @CLE 59% | IND 59% | @TB 45% | @NO 57% | CLE 70% | bye | @CIN 38% | @PHI 31% | DEN 45% | HOU 45% | @JAX 39% | BAL 41% | CAR 62% | @TEN 55% | @BAL 31% | |
NE 60% | @ARI 81% | @WSH 62% | LAC 61% | SF 62% | @DEN 55% | KC 61% | CHI 67% | ARI 87% | @LV 73% | bye | @SF 45% | DAL 65% | NYG 74% | @PHI 45% | LAR — | @CAR 69% | @LAR 39% | |
@IND 61% | NO 75% | @DAL 58% | TEN 77% | @ATL 65% | @CLE 73% | CIN 62% | @BUF 41% | JAX 65% | LAC 61% | @CAR 65% | @HOU 45% | bye | TB 70% | @PIT 59% | CLE 81% | @CIN 41% | PIT 69% | |
@CAR 58% | MIN 61% | PHI 54% | NYJ 78% | @GB 38% | @ATL 60% | NE 55% | @SEA 33% | TB 62% | bye | NO 72% | @DET 41% | JAX 61% | @MIA 67% | @BUF 36% | GB 55% | DET 55% | @MIN 45% | |
@NYG 59% | WSH 65% | @BAL 42% | @HOU 42% | TB 62% | @GB 40% | @PHI 39% | ARI 82% | @IND 55% | SF 55% | TEN 73% | PHI 55% | @SEA 35% | bye | @LAR 27% | JAX 61% | NYG 67% | @WSH 55% | |
DEN 57% | IND 72% | @MIA 76% | @LV 69% | bye | LAC 59% | @SEA 39% | @DEN 45% | NYJ 81% | @ATL 64% | ARI 84% | @BUF 41% | @LAR 35% | @CIN 45% | NE 59% | SF 61% | @LAC 45% | LV 77% | |
NYJ 53% | PHI 34% | @NYG 40% | @BAL 23% | HOU 38% | @IND 38% | CLE 61% | @CIN 28% | bye | JAX 41% | @DAL 27% | @JAX 31% | WSH 45% | @DET 26% | IND 45% | @LV 45% | PIT 45% | @HOU 27% | |
GB 53% | @CHI 39% | @TB 45% | MIA 75% | @NO 55% | bye | IND 59% | @DET 33% | BUF 38% | @GB 35% | @SF 38% | ATL 64% | CAR 62% | @NE 35% | DET 43% | WSH 59% | @NYJ 61% | CHI 55% | |
@HOU 51% | DET 60% | LAC 60% | NE 62% | @LAR 37% | @LV 73% | bye | BAL 59% | @MIN 62% | @NYJ 73% | MIA 85% | KC 59% | @NE 48% | @GB 45% | CHI 64% | @DEN 55% | @MIA 74% | NYJ 81% | |
BUF 49% | CIN 59% | @IND 55% | DAL 58% | @TEN 62% | @JAX 55% | NYG 69% | bye | @LAC 41% | @CLE 65% | IND 67% | BAL 55% | @PIT 55% | @WSH 55% | JAX 61% | @PHI 41% | @GB 39% | TEN 73% | |
@MIN 47% | @NYJ 68% | ATL 75% | @TB 55% | CHI 62% | DAL 60% | @DET 41% | CAR 73% | @NE 45% | MIN 65% | bye | @LAR 31% | @NO 65% | BUF 55% | MIA 82% | @CHI 45% | HOU 61% | DET 59% | |
@TEN 47% | GB 32% | @DET 20% | @CHI 22% | CLE 57% | @NE 20% | MIA 59% | LV 55% | @KC 19% | BUF 27% | @LAC 19% | @MIA 45% | bye | DEN 33% | @ARI — | NE 28% | MIN 39% | @BUF 19% | |
@KC 43% | JAX 59% | LAR 40% | @SF 42% | @LAC 42% | SEA 45% | @ARI 74% | KC 55% | @CAR 61% | bye | LV 76% | @PIT 55% | MIA 79% | @NYJ 67% | @LV 65% | BUF 45% | @NE 39% | LAC 55% | |
DAL 41% | @LAR 22% | TEN 60% | ARI 73% | @WSH 42% | NO 59% | @HOU 31% | bye | @PHI 31% | WSH 55% | JAX 45% | @IND 39% | SF 39% | @SEA 26% | CLE 65% | @DET 31% | @DAL 33% | PHI 39% | |
CHI 42% | @ATL 46% | @CLE 56% | DET 40% | bye | @PHI 28% | TB 45% | @GB 27% | DEN 39% | @NO 45% | BAL 35% | @TB 38% | @MIN 38% | NO 59% | CIN 41% | @PIT 38% | SEA 31% | ATL 59% | |
BAL 39% | @KC 28% | HOU 45% | @WSH 45% | @PIT 41% | TEN 62% | @MIN 41% | @JAX 35% | DAL 45% | MIA 73% | @HOU 33% | NYG 61% | bye | @PHI 31% | @TEN 55% | CIN 45% | @CLE 59% | JAX 55% | |
@SEA 40% | PIT 66% | @JAX 45% | @BUF 38% | LV 77% | NYJ 80% | @CHI 45% | @MIA 73% | GB 55% | @DET — | bye | @LAC 41% | BUF 52% | MIN 65% | @KC 41% | @NYJ 72% | DEN 61% | MIA 82% | |
@PIT 38% | CAR 54% | @GB 25% | @NO 42% | BAL 35% | CHI 40% | SF 34% | @TB 35% | @CIN 35% | KC 36% | bye | @MIN 36% | DET 38% | @CLE — | @WSH 36% | TB 45% | NO 57% | @CAR 41% | |
@LV 38% | @SF 17% | KC 24% | @MIN 25% | CIN 30% | bye | @NYJ 41% | NE 27% | DET 28% | @IND 27% | @BUF 15% | NYJ 55% | @DEN 21% | CHI 33% | @GB 18% | LAC 27% | BUF 26% | @NE 18% | |
@LAR 36% | MIA 83% | ARI 84% | DEN 58% | @SEA 38% | WSH 69% | @ATL 66% | bye | LV 78% | @DAL 45% | @MIN 62% | SEA 55% | @NYG 61% | LAR 41% | @LAC 41% | @KC 39% | PHI 55% | @ARI 77% | |
@CIN 36% | CLE 71% | MIN 55% | GB 45% | @DAL 38% | PIT 55% | @CAR 55% | ATL 65% | @CHI 38% | bye | @DET 35% | CAR 62% | LAC 45% | @BAL 30% | NO 62% | @ATL 55% | LAR 36% | @NO 55% | |
@PHI 34% | @DAL 35% | SEA 38% | @IND 55% | NYG 58% | @SF 31% | bye | PHI 41% | LAR 35% | @NYG 45% | CIN 45% | @ARI 65% | @TEN 55% | HOU 45% | ATL 64% | @MIN 41% | @JAX 38% | DAL 45% | |
@DET 27% | @BAL 25% | LV 63% | ATL 58% | MIN 45% | @NYG 41% | @PIT 43% | bye | CLE 64% | CAR 55% | @CHI 28% | @CIN 28% | GB 35% | @CAR 41% | @TB 38% | ARI 69% | @ATL 43% | TB 45% | |
@JAX 21% | @TB 29% | CAR 44% | PIT 41% | @NYJ 43% | BAL 27% | @TEN 39% | @PIT 30% | @NO 36% | HOU 35% | bye | LV 57% | CIN 35% | ATL — | @NYG 35% | @BAL 19% | IND 41% | @CIN 26% | |
@LAC 20% | SEA 19% | @SF 16% | @NYG 27% | DET 23% | @LAR 12% | DEN 26% | @DAL 18% | @SEA 13% | LAR 18% | @KC 16% | WSH 35% | PHI 23% | bye | NYJ — | @NO 31% | LV 45% | SF 23% |
Ringed cells are the current optimal path. Cell colour runs from a lock through the coin-flip band to a dog.